HSBC : Las ventas minoristas crecieron considerablemente en marzo Alexis Milo Economista en Jefe de HSBC México

 

http://bit.ly/1e3iCuh

 

–        En marzo, las ventas al por menor crecieron más de lo esperado en términos anuales y mensuales, viniendo en línea con el crecimiento del Producto Interno Bruto en el primer trimestre del año.

–        Las ventas al por menor dieron soporte para que los servicios continúen siendo el principal motor de crecimiento, aunque el resultado de este mes pudo verse favorecido por el efecto de las vacaciones de Semana Santa.

–        Sin embargo, a pesar de que la tendencia de las ventas sea al alza, esperamos que se modere hacia finales de año, debido a que no anticipamos una recuperación sostenida en la demanda.

 

Mexico

 

Retail sales: Sharp rise in March but is it sustainable?

 

In March, retail sales surpassed expectations on both yearly and monthly bases. It is worth noting that the strong annual rate this month came in line with Q1 2016 GDP results as services continued to be the main source of growth. In addition, Easter Holidays this year were in the last days of March instead of April as in 2015, which may have provided additional support due to a calendar effect. On a monthly basis, the trend maintained an upward pattern though we expect it to moderate as the year ends since the acceleration of sales may be more related to a shift in the timing of household purchases than a broad sustained consolidation of demand.

 

Facts

 

The National Institute of Statistics (INEGI) released retail sales for March 2016, which grew above expectations on a yearly basis at 6.4% y-o-y (expected 4.8% y-o-y, as per Bloomberg’s poll). The strong annual rate this month may be partially reflecting the seasonal effect of the Easter Holidays, which has a positive impact on sales activity. In addition, the monthly rate considerably surpassed expectations as it shows an expansion of 3.0% m-o-m (expected 0.1% m-o-m as per Bloomberg’s poll).

 

Implications

 

Retail sales in March showed stronger-than-expected results and came fairly in line with Q1 2016 GDP results released last Friday. As mentioned, retail activity continued to outperform overall growth in the early months of 2016, though some related-indicators such as consumer confidence remain at low levels (see Figures 1 and 2). Thus, the strong performance of sales may be related to a shift in the timing of household purchases rather than a broad sustained consolidation of demand. In addition, Easter Holidays this year were in the last days of March instead of April as in 2015, which may suggest an additional support stemmed from a calendar effect. Hence, even though it is too early to see a moderation pattern in the trend of retail sales, we expect private consumption to temper as the year ends as we do not anticipate a sustained recovery in demand.

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